There is much speculation that the recent run up in oil prices was not entirely down to the Syrian war premium, but also to tightness in the market caused by disruptions to Libyan production. None other than Goldman Sachs echoed this view in a report which stressed that oil risks were still dominated by Libya, not Syria. Link.
The New York Times went further with a detailed article which suggests that unrest has brought Libyan production to a virtual standstill taking almost 1.5 million barrels of high-quality crude oil a day off the world market. Link
In light of this news it comes as an absolute stunner that OPEC plans to cut production by half a million barrels a day at its next meeting in December. This is apparently “in order keep prices from falling below $100 a barrel.” Link.
In terms of average yearly prices oil is near its oil time high. To me this can only mean one thing OPEC expects a near time drop in production that has nothing to do with price maintenance and everything to do with enforced geological constraints.